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After Paula Radcliffe’s searing victory at this weekend’s Great South Run, turning on the heat in a cold, wet and windy Portsmouth, the question is: how will Paula do in next week’s biggie, the New York City Marathon?

First of all, is she fit? A fully-fit Radcliffe is, on paper, a favourite to win pretty much any race of 10 miles and upwards. Very few athletes have the capacity to throw in a 4.57 mile early on in a race and not crash and burn afterwards (winning in New York a year ago, mile 2 went by in 4.59!). And it looks very much as though the weather, not her fitness, prevented her from breaking Lornah Kiplagat’s world best over the 10-mile distance.

After Beijing, Paula noted that her cardiovascular fitness had not really been taxed: it was structural damage that stopped her pushing herself to run fast, so in essence although the marathon was painful and slow, it was not a hard cardiovascular effort. This implies that recovery was not a problem, and that it was just a question of continuing the race-hardening process by running on the roads and trails rather than in water and on an anti-gravity treadmill as she had done in the lead-up to Beijing. This Paula has done, with a solid two months of high mileage.

What does her time in Portmouth tell us? Beating a 17-year-old British record was perhaps not that significant, but coming so close to the world’s fastest time set by the current world half-marathon champion, is proof that she has good speed in her legs. Her time, 51.11, would predict a marathon time of 2.23.10, according to one set of tables, 2.24.57 according to another. Paula won in New York last year in a close finish, and in a time of 2.23.09. So the signs that the body is in good working order are good, especially since she admitted to holding back in the Great South Run.

Predictor tables are one thing, though, and running the race is another. The flesh may be strong, but what about the spirit? What do we know about Paula’s race performance when she has spent time away or had an illness- or injury-induced poor performance?

Well, exactly one year ago, as she outpushed longstanding rival Gete Wami to win the New York Marathon by 23 seconds, Paula was racing just nine months after the birth of her daughter Isla. This after coming a decent second in the Great North Run as her back-in-the-saddle race.

Two years earlier, in Helsinki, in the 2005 World Championships, Paula had returned from the devastation of the Athens Olympics. Radcliffe had been pilloried in the press after dropping out of the Athens marathon, where she had been clear favourite, and the psychological scars must have been deep. Despite being the fastest ever over the marathon distance, a global title had thus far eluded her,
yet her time of 2.20.57 was a record for the World Championships. Not only that, but Radcliffe really bossed the race, showing that dealing with the extra pressure of a championship race rather than a city marathon was in no way a hindrance to her performance.

Toe injuries, bike crashes, pelvic problems, bronchitis…the list of reasons for Paula’s absence from major races is long and varied. But history tells us that when she is fully fit, well prepared and hungry for the win - she wins. There is no lack of positivity. Gete Wami will be there in the Big Apple to spur her on, so we can expect a great race. Will Paula come out on top? We think so.

Happy running!

This entry was posted on Monday, October 27th, 2008 at 12:16 pm and is filed under Predictions, Training. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.